According to the Pew Research Center, 45% of all eligible voters in New Mexico are Latino, making it the only state where Latinos are the largest racial or ethnic voting bloc.
Earning Latino support in New Mexico is critical for political success, but Latinos in New Mexico aren’t a political monolith; 53% of Latinos are registered Democrats, 24% identify as independent, and 23% are registered Republicans, compared to the national average of about 16%.
Latino votes in this year’s midterm elections will be the key to New Mexico’s most competitive race where two Latino men are facing off in New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District.
In the district’s two most populated counties, Bernalillo and Doña Ana, Latinos make up the largest demographic. Redistricting laws passed in 2021 altered the district to include neighborhoods like the South Valley in Albuquerque where Latinos make up more than 82% of the population.
In every race since the district’s map was altered, Latino voters in Las Cruces and Albuquerque have determined who will carry the 2nd Congressional District.
Why are Latino votes decisive in NM-02?
Since 2022, they’ve voted for Rep. Gabe Vasquez, D-N.M, who successfully defeated Republican Yvette Herrell twice. Vasquez cut his political teeth as a City Councilor for Las Cruces and has emphasized his Latino identity in past campaigns.
Republican candidate Greg Cunningham, who is also Latino, is challenging Vasquez with the support of national Republican politicians like President Donald Trump.
“Go vote for Greg Cunningham. He’s great, respected by everybody, a real patriot. You’ll be happy,” said Pres. Trump in a video where he mispronounced Vasquez’s last name.
Cunningham has never won an election; he ran unsuccessfully for state representative in Albuquerque in 2022 and 2024 where he failed to win significant precincts.
When interviewed by the Santa Fe New Mexican, polling expert Brian Sanderoff cited Cunningham’s personal connection to the South Valley neighborhood as potentially strategic for boosting Latino voter turnout in Albuquerque.
In 2024, voters in the 2nd congressional district narrowly favored Trump even though they elected Vasquez. According to New Mexico in Depth, an “enthusiasm gap” among voters led to demographic shifts towards Trump despite Democratic candidates winning across the state.
Republicans have identified Cunningham’s campaign to flip the seat as a strategy for holding a slim majority in the House of Representatives.
Cunningham isn’t just endorsed by high-profile Republicans but has also hosted Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La. to campaign for him, and spoke at the Republicans’ national midterm convention in September.
But Cunningham’s many connections to Pres. Trump could be a liability for earning Latino votes in the midterm elections.
Is Trump political poison in NM?
Trump’s approval ratings in New Mexico continue to hit record lows and national polling suggests a sea change among Latinos in opposition to Republicans, even in deep red states like Texas and Florida.
According to an NBC/Telemundo poll, Latino voters are heavily favoring Democratic candidates due to Trump’s economic and immigration policies.
Currently, polling from KOB and Survey USA shows Vasquez narrowly leading Cunningham by single digits, though among Latino voters Vasquez has higher name recognition and approval ratings.
Vasquez has leaned into Latino voters’ role in the election by inviting Cunningham to a Spanish-language debate on Univision. In New Mexico, 60% of Latinos speak Spanish. Cunningham has not commented on the Vasquez campaign’s attempts to schedule the debate in Spanish.
So far, only one debate between the two candidates has been scheduled for Oct. 16 on KRQE in English.
