The race for governor in New Mexico has historically swung between Democrats and Republicans for decades.
But in recent years, Democrats have dominated across the state. They currently hold every congressional seat, state-wide office, and legislative majority.
The Republican Party of New Mexico faces steep odds this election cycle. In addition to internal turmoil, the Democrats are running a strong gubernatorial candidate with national name recognition. Meanwhile, recent polling shows most New Mexicans disapprove of Donald Trump’s second term, and out-going Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham leaving office with a legacy of popular policies.
The matchup in November is less than 100 days away, so who exactly are the candidates for governor and what’s the current forecast?
Who’s running? The national name vs. a suburban mayor
Deb Haaland (Laguna Pueblo), the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, worked for the Biden administration and made history by becoming the first Indigenous Interior Secretary.
She began her political career as a tribal administrator at San Felipe Pueblo. In 2014, she lost the race for lieutenant governor to John Sanchez, later becoming the chair of the Democratic Party of New Mexico from 2015-2017.
In 2018, she was elected to the House of Representatives where she represented New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District (Albuquerque, Rio Rancho, Ruidoso). Haaland rode the “blue wave” of progressive victories across the country with an endorsement from President Barack Obama. She handily won re-election in 2020, but was tapped by the Biden administration to run the Department of the Interior.
In June, Haaland defeated Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination by 46 points. If Haaland were to win the gubernatorial election, she’d be the first ever Indigenous governor in the country.
Gregg Hull has been mayor of Rio Rancho for the last 12 years, basically as long as Haaland has been running for statewide office. Before he ran for Rio Rancho mayor, he ran a packing and crating business after moving to New Mexico in the 1990s.
During Hull’s tenure, he won re-election twice, the only mayor in the city’s 45-year history. In his announcement that he’d be running for governor, Hull emphasized his staff’s work in creating a permanent fund for future city spending and improving road infrastructure.
The Republican primary pitted Hull against businessmen Doug Turner and Duke Rodriguez. Hull led in the polls leading up to the June 2 primary, and earned 46% of the vote to become the party’s nominee.
Where they stand
The biggest issues in the race so far have mainly centered around New Mexicans’ cost-of-living: healthcare and affordability.
According to her website, Haaland’s campaign proposes expanding mental health services, protecting access to affordable insurance, and deploying mobile health clinics to reach rural communities. She’s also supported the recent efforts by the state to join interstate medical compacts and strengthen student loan repayment incentives for medical students.
Her economic policies echo what other Democratic communities around the state are focusing on: building more housing, increasing the minimum wage, and investing in renewable energy. Haaland’s website says her goal is to make New Mexico the “energy capital of the country” through prioritizing alternatives to fossil fuels.
Hull’s economic strategy is to make New Mexico “as business-friendly as possible.” And his website features the usual conservative approaches to achieving that lofty goal: slashing regulations and cutting taxes. He’s even thrown support behind a state Republican effort to reduce or eliminate New Mexico’s personal income tax (a plan that legislative analysis has projected to cost the state almost $4 billion).
Interestingly, Hull has expressed tepid support for Gov. Lujan Grisham’s universal childcare program, telling the Albuquerque Journal that it was “great, in concept.” He has supported keeping the program but would want to see it scaled back.
Another interesting common ground between the two candidates is support for alternative public safety initiatives. While Hull’s website is a bit vague when it says he supports “strengthening behavioral health services” so that “medical professionals” can field emergency calls, Haaland’s explicitly calls for an “Office of Community Safety staffed with social workers and counselors.”
But Hull has also come out in support of expanding local police departments, mandatory sentencing, and increasing funding for increased recruiting. Haaland supports increasing law enforcement resources, but balances it with dedicated funding for addiction treatment and violence prevention programs in schools.
Money, Trump and the electoral map
The latest analysis from the nonpartisan Center for Politics rates the race as “Safe Democratic,” giving Haaland a significant advantage. She continues to out-raise Hull in campaign contributions (more than $750,000 in June, compared to Hull’s $323,000), while the Republican Party of New Mexico has brought in right-wing commentators like Nick Shirley and former gubernatorial candidate Mark Ronchetti to campaign for Hull.
Hull’s internal polling confirms Haaland’s lead and his own lower name recognition, though his campaign insists the race is “currently statistically tied.”
Hull has yet to receive an endorsement from national party leaders, though he noted that an endorsement from Donald Trump would be a “pretty cool thing.”
The candidates are scheduled to debate at least once before election day on Nov. 3, though an official date has yet been set.
Are you registered to vote?
Fill out the form below to make sure your voice is heard in the upcoming elections.
