New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District is the only one of the three US House races in New Mexico that was expected to be a tight one. But after the June 2 primary, Republicans think they finally have a real shot of unseating incumbent Gabe Vasquez (D).
While Kamala Harris handily carried New Mexico’s five electoral delegates in the 2024 election, Donald Trump squeaked out a slim majority of voters in NM-02. Now that the primaries are over, Trump and the Republican party are backing two-time failed state Senate candidate and former Albuquerque police detective Greg Cunningham to try to win back a seat Republicans haven’t won since 2020.
But in a year where New Mexico Republicans are struggling to even form a quorum to elect new leadership, can conservatives win in the only midterm they’re competitive in?
Intro to District Two
NM-02 covers most of the southern half of New Mexico including Las Cruces, the second largest city in the state.
New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District has been a political hot spot for national politics for several years. Steve Pearce (Trump’s current Director of the Bureau of Land Management) served as its representative for 14 years. In 2018, attorney Xochitl Torres Small made national headlines when she pulled off a narrow victory against Republican Yvette Herrell, riding the “blue wave” of Democratic candidates that solidified their majority in the House. Herrell, after securing an endorsement from Trump, won back the seat in 2020, and re-established NM-02 as an official swing district for federal elections watchers.
However, the district was redistricted in 2021 to include parts of Albuquerque, which benefitted Democrats. Since then, former Las Cruces city councilor Gabe Vasquez has held the seat and won re-election by increasingly larger margins every election cycle.
Who is Gabe Vasquez?
Before becoming NM-02’s US Rep., Vasquez had previously worked for Sen. Martin Heinrich, the Hispanic Chamber of Commerce de Las Cruces, and served as a city councilor for Las Cruces for four years.
When he ran against Yvette Herrell for her seat in 2022, he barely topped her by a percentage point. Oddly enough, when Vasquez secured a greater lead over Herrell in his re-election campaign for 2024, the district swung for Trump by a smidge.
Since getting into office, Vasquez has racked up a relatively progressive voting record. He voted against bills restricting transgender rights, stricter immigration enforcement measures, and the so-called SAVE America Act, which would require voters to show proof of citizenship to vote. Vasquez this week joined 100 Democrats to vote for a State Department amendment that would’ve cut $3 billion in aid to Israel.
Who is Greg Cunningham?
NM-02 seems to be only part of the state where Trump’s brand still matters. But is a Trump and Herrell endorsement enough to take a political newcomer across the finish line?
Greg Cunningham isn’t known to many folks outside of Albuquerque where he served as police detective and attempted to unseat Rep. Joy Garratt (D-Albuquerque) twice. Cunningham also features his military background as a Marine heavily on his website and campaign ads.
In his endorsement, posted on Truth Social, Trump called Vasquez a “Radical Left Democrat” and claimed about Cunningham in all caps: “HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN.”
Additionally, a Republican political action committee announced a plan in April to spend $3.8 million for TV ads against Vasquez in Albuquerque and El Paso. However, Vasquez so far has amassed a massive war chest and has already raised more than $3 million in campaign funds.
So what’s the forecast?
New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District is currently considered a Democrat-leaning race according to the Cook Political Report. Similarly, VoteHub, a nonpartisan aggregation platform for monitoring elections, predicts that Vasquez is likely to win the midterm contest in November. Even Republicans’ own internal polling has Vasquez leading Cunningham by two points, though 16% remain undecided.
Both campaigns agree that the key to winning this potentially swingy district is to win over the Albuquerque voters that were drawn into the district in 2021.
But with the political future of the Republican party looking bleak in New Mexico, it’s shaping up to be one of the most closely watched House races in the country this fall.
